Friday, July 29, 2011

Drinking the Erik Bedard Kool-Aid

I'm right there.  Right now, Clay Buchholz's short-term future is very much in question, and I'm like the rest of you:  The idea of having John Lackey as the Red Sox' third starter in October and even September is not exactly the kind of idea that makes you sleep well at night.  Plus, I'm not completely sold on Josh Beckett's ability to hold it together for another three months.

Therefore, I'm all for Erik Bedard.  I think he's the starting pitcher on the trade market who makes the most sense (Jimenez, while an intriguing candidate, will be too expensive and has never pitched in the American League, nevermind the East.).  He's on a one-year contract, so it would essentially be a one-year rental.  Therefore, the Mariners aren't going to be asking for the sun, moon, and stars for this guy.  The price tag will be reasonable.  If it has to be Josh Reddick while the perceived value is high, so be it.

Not sure if you've heard it before, but Bedard is a health risk.  Fine.  The Red Sox aren't paying $20 million for this guy to possibly go on the DL.  Injury risks are taken into consideration when you're doing free-agent analysis, not 3-month rental analysis.  He's healthy now.  He could get hurt, but then again, so could Beckett.  Or Buchholz could come back.  We don't know. 

We do know, however, that he's not a performance risk.  With the exception of his rookie year in Baltimore, he has never exceeded 4.00 in ERA or a WHIP of 1.38 (which I'm pretty sure is half of Lackey's or Andrew Miller's at this time).  He strikes out nearly one guy per inning, with his K/9 being a staggering 10.9 in his last free-agent year.  While his Seattle stats may have been helped by the stadium, nobody's stats are helped by Camden Yards or the AL East - and he's done both, obviously, during his time in Baltimore.

Another oblique benefit for bringing in Bedard, other than 1) his performance and 2) less pressure on Lackey, is the long-term benefit for Clay Buchholz.  We don't know what's wrong with this guy, and obviously, neither do the Red Sox' doctors.  What else is new?  Having Bedard instead of Lackey as your stopgap Buchholz replacement is a relief, because it allows to team to rehab their long-term investment instead of rushing him back for a haphazard pennant race.

Bottom line is:  Red Sox need Erik Bedard.  This is what you do at the trade deadline.  A few days ago I said there was no fatal flaw.  The Buchholz injury IS a fatal flaw.  Time to fix it.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

GM,

Did some rational non-biased person ghost write this post for you?

It was very good and reasonable. I'd be on board with that. Obviously you'd like Jiminez more (and I think he has the stuff to get the job done in the AL East) but the price would be too high.

Bandi

the gm at work said...

I think I am always rational. You only have a case for "non-biased."

I'd prefer Bedard for three months over Jimenez for three months probably at any price. If you take out his first fourteen starts of the 2010 season (the balance of that season, his ERA was 4.34), your case of "Jimenez has the stuff to get the job done in the AL East" is a lot more difficult to argue.

Anonymous said...

Last night i was against bedard based on my fantasy baseball experience where he would get shelled in crucial situations for my team, however for the first time in the history of this blog i did some research: current yankees have a .191 avg against him and he has a better then 2 k/bb ration, i am officially drinking the koolaid.
-Jason