Tuesday, March 29, 2011

2011 Predictions

Please see DV's post below as well. I'm going to the game tomorrow, so in case there is any discussion about these picks I wanted to be able to do so today. Hopefully DV will give his picks for tomorrow as we complete our season preview.

AL EAST
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Jays

This is the only division I'm going to elaborate on because it's the only one that we concern ourselves with on this site on a daily basis. I think the Yankees are just as talented as the Red Sox on paper, and I think they are going to get a lot better with the addition of a key piece during the season (hence my liking them to get to the World Series over the Red Sox despite not beating them out for the division). But I think the Sox will get some separation over 162 because they are going to be playing with that "new" feel. We've talked about the impact of "new" managers and players, and I think the Sox are going to have that going on this year. Especially after missing the playoffs last year, there is going to be a lot of motivation in that clubhouse. Much like the 2009 Yankees, both in terms of "new" and that same motivation. I think the Rays will be closer to the Red Sox/Yankees than they will be to the Orioles/Jays. I also think this is the year the Orioles get out of the basement. Despite picking them to finish last this year, I think the Jays are in store for a huge jump up the standings next year if things fall right and they have a good winter.

AL CENTRAL
1. Twins
2. White sox
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals

AL WEST
1. Rangers
2. A's
3. Angels
4. Mariners

NL EAST
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Marlins
4. Mets
5. Nationals

NL CENTRAL
1. Brewers
2. Reds
3. Cardinals
4. Cubs
5. Astros
6. Pirates

NL WEST
1. Giants
2. Rockies
3. Dodgers
4. Diamondbacks
5. Padres

AL Wild Card: Yankees
NL Wild Card: Braves

ALDS: Red sox over Rangers
Yankees over Twins

NLDS: Phillies over Giants
Brewers over Braves

ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS: Phillies over Brewers

World Series: Phillies over Yankees

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL Cy: David Price
AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson
AL MOY: Bob Geren

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Freddie Freeman
NL MOY: Ron Roenicke

4 comments:

the gm at work said...

I want to keep my cards close, and therefore it's going to hamper my ability to argue with you, here.

Your East is pretty solid, but it wouldn't surprise me if the bottom dropped out of Tampa.

How many games would you have the Rangers winning this year? Do you think those guys are in for a hangover year? I'd say so. But they are playing in the AL West.

I'll reveal this: Grienke for CYA in the NL, now that he has something to play for. No love for Mike Stanton?

Patrick said...

gm -

i think the rays are going to be better than people think.

i see the rangers in the mid-upper 80's. definite candidate for a hangover year, but even in a hangover year it might be enough in that division. that said, i could easily see the A's or angels winning it too, very wide open. the only other division i see as that wide open - and it might be even more so - is the NL west.

the pick i actually feel shakiest about is the twins. i probably like the white sox better on paper. but i just don't know if i can pick against that team.

i actually picked mike stanton when i originally wrote the post, but when my buddies and i were sending around our season picks via e-mail, i was called out for him not being a rookie. which he isn't. not even close, 100 games and 396 plate appearances. who knew? bad job by me. i think stanton would win if he was eligible, but since he isn't freddie freeman is in, and i wouldn't be surprised to see brandon belt take it.

after halladay and maybe lee, i like greinke as well for the exact reason you mention plus the move to the NL. i thought about him, but i think doc is just too much of a machine.

the gm at work said...

Where are your buddies in the comments section? Intimidated? Or just apathetic toward the small-market team to the north?

I'm picking the A's because Coco Crisp is due for that .330/30/110 year.

Ross Kaplan said...

I generally agree with your predictions. I could see the bottom 3 of the AL East finishing in any order even the O's shocking the world and finishing in 3rd. On paper, the Red Sox are better than the Yankees, but injuries and under/overachieving by either team could cause the teams to switch places. Also, I'm just curious if anyone knows this, but does anyone know when was the last time that an AL East team didn't win the Wild Card? I feel like we're due for the White Sox or A's to make a legitimate run at the Wild Card.

In the National League, I think the Braves are getting overrated. I think the loss of Bobby Cox will have a bigger effect then people think it will have. They will probably finish in second in the east, but I don't think they're better than other potential NL WC contenders like the Rockies and Cardinals.