Monday, January 31, 2011

Josh Beckett by the Percentages

Not much to talk about. Watching the last night of Rocky IV On Demand was much more reasonable than watching fans pose softball questions at Theo, Francona, and Lucchino. However, while studying this weekend, I looked at something that I had seen a few times before about "if the world were 100 people." This has baseball implications, of course, especially when it comes to Josh Beckett.

Let's take a look at Josh Beckett's career - and his 2007 season - and consolidate each into 100 pitches.

Career Josh Beckett: 6.31 IP, 3 R, 6 H, 1.3 2B, 0.7 HR, 2 BB

2007 Josh Beckett: 6.5 IP, 2.46 R, 6 H, 1.45 2B, 0.55 HR, 1.3 BB

This says two things: First of all, there's not much of a difference when you aggregate a lot of things. The small picture says Beckett had a half-decent outing, the big picture says Beckett had a so-so outing. But the bigger thing, perhaps, is the obvious difference. The Beckett from 2007 actually gave up 0.2 more hits than the career version. However, the big difference is he didn't walk anyone and he kept the ball in the ballpark. Therefore, he gave up half a run less. The difference is home runs and walks.

Your eyes told you this. Numbers back it up.

And yes, the numbers also back up the fact that Josh Beckett is a so-so six-inning starter over the course of his career.


TimC said...

Lovely numbers there DV and spot on as usual. I believe we saw a similar statistical situation with Dice last year in those games he pitched well.

Keep the ball in play, kids.

the gm at work said...

I'm actually really glad I ran these numbers. Chances I take a look at this for other starters, namely your boy and make it into an additional post are very high. It comes down to whether I'd rather write about that or about Gil Meche while snowed in this week.

TimC said...

Forget Gil Meche. I was probably not quite seasoned enough of a baseball fan to fully appreciate it at the time but some of Schilling's performances when he allowed guys to hit the ball and his guys to make plays were really the sign of maturity that allows some guys to stay consistent. The 'prevent defense' gets knocked in football, for some reason, and I think the idea that letting guys hit the ball into play gets the same rap.