Thursday, April 1, 2010

2010: Over-Under Predictions

For the over-unders, we’ll have ten serious ones and ten funny/sarcastic ones. Feel free to submit your own in the comments section.

  • Jason Varitek at-bats: 199.5
  • Red Sox wins: 86.5
  • Joba Chamberlain starts: 11
  • CC Sabathia starts + AJ Burnout starts: 53
  • Javier Vazquez’s ERA: 4.67
  • Josh Beckett’s average annual value for his next contract: $17.5
  • Players implicated in steroid scandals (including names released from the List of 104): 75
  • Shutouts thrown against the 2010 Red Sox: 11.5
  • Shutouts thrown against the 2010 Yankees: 4
  • Mike Cameron home runs: 19.5
  • Adrian Beltre home runs: 19.5
  • Average Game-Time Temperature for first 10 Twins home games: 35.
  • Complete games played by JD Drew: 105
  • Weak ground balls to the right side by Drew: 99.5
  • Percentage of posts written by the GM during the season: 63%
  • Anonymous comments from people who played freshman baseball in high school discounting Pat’s and my credentials: 1.5
  • Ian Kennedy starts where he surrenders 5+ runs: 6.5
  • Ian Kennedy starts where he surrenders 5+ runs, then talks about how great his stuff is in the Phoenix paper the next day: 5.5
  • Blown saves by Red Sox bullpen: 37.5
  • Wine varieties featuring Red Sox players: 0.5
  • Whine varieties featuring Red Sox players: 7.5
  • Johnny Damon interviews in Boston papers about his time in Boston: 4
  • Johnny Damon interviews in Boston papers about his time in Detroit: 0.5
  • (Minutes spent analyzing the 2010 NFL draft on ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU)/(Minutes spent playing football in the entire careers of the 2010 NFL draft class):  0.99


Anonymous said...


I wish we could gamble on some of these lines. I actually think a lot of them are really accurate though.

For instance, homers for Cameron and Beltre. I really don't know which way to go on either. I'll take the under on both, but that's only because I think they'll hit like 16-19, not because they'll be terrible.

I'm hoping for the under on blown saves (obviously a facetious line) and praying for an under on Varitek at bats. At this point his at bats aren't just bad for the team. They're hard to watch. Unless you're drunk of course.

I like the over on Red Sox wins and the under on complete games played by JD Drew. I'm really interested in Javier Vazquez as well. I could see him finishing below that ERA you posted and still having a very rough year. In fact, I'm saying he's in the mid-low fours but gives up 28 homers this year.

--the Gunn

the gm at work said...

The blown save number is not facetious. On the aggregate, they blew 18 saves last year. This includes blowing a 2-run lead in the 7th inning and stuff like that. They once recorded five (5) blown saves in one game against Philadelphia back in June 2003.

I feel like with the abundance of one-run leads the team might have going into the 6th inning this year, there will be more blown save opportunities, and more blown saves coming to fruition.

I'll take the over on the Beltre home runs, but the under on Cameron.

Anonymous said...


Yeah, you can blow a save basically as long as a pitcher is in line for a win. 38 blown saves isn't going to happen though. Also, that game in 2003 was Nomar's six hit game. I think Jim Thome hit nine homers that day.

If the Red Sox get 20 homers from Beltre and the defense he's said to possess then you'd have to consider his signing excellent, even if it does mean that the Sox spent 20 million dollars on a third basemen this year (hey, it's less than the Yankees pay theirs).

--the Gunn

the gm at work said...


Timlin, Jason Schiell, and Rudy Seanez (shocking) had blown saves that day. One of the more memorable games in my life--I'll never forget driving all over Wilmington to about six graduation parties, and every single time I was in the car, they blew another save. That was really the old Red Sox way.

I really think 38 blown saves could happen. Think about it: Bottom of the sixth inning in Baltimore, Matsuzaka's gassed after 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 7 BB, 6 K, 110 pitches with a 2-1 lead. Bring in Delcarmen. Goes down 3-0 against Luke Scott, throws a meatball that goes onto Eutaw Street. That's one blown save. Orioles get into trouble, walk the bases loaded with no outs, then Nancy hits into a 4-6-3 double play to score a run and put Boston up 3-2. Bard comes in, gives up a double, throws a wild pitch, and records a sac fly. Two blown saves. You get my point.

the gm at work said...

By the way, is today NOT the most depressing day of the year at Colby College?

Ross Kaplan said...

Oh no, I guess Bates is better at fundraising then Colby, which of course makes them the better college. This is of course ignoring the fact that Bates alumni were probably blackmailed into donating.

Back to baseball, I read in SI's Baseball preview issue how Papelbon has the 2nd most saves in the first 5 years of his MLB career just behind the immortal Billy Koch. If that's not a bad omen for the Red Sox I don't know what is.

the gm at work said...

The "most depressing day" was a reference to the fact that today's the day all the freshman girls who used to be hot back in September shed the sweatpants and winter jackets, put their September gear on, and can't fit in them anymore after a long winter of drinking beer and not walking down to the athletic center. I don't care who wins some gimmicky donation-fest. And if Colby wants more donations, they should have fewer pissed-off alumni. I mean, look at the attitudes of me, you, Pat, Bandi, Gunn, almost everyone. I have several friends from Bowdoin and they do not feel anything close to the resentment we feel toward the Colby administration.

Papelbon told me he's the next Rivera, not the next Billy Koch. Billy Koch wasn't determined to set the bar for closers' salaries.

And as October 2, 2011 is 18 months from today, I put another grand into an 18-month CD today.