Monday, December 14, 2009

Lackey In, Bay Out, DV Flakes Out

Interesting last 36 hours when I was unable to update HYD Baseball. First of all, Jason Bay, citing no progress in negotiations, and his agent Joe Urbon have decided the negotiations with the Red Sox are pretty much dead. The Red Sox hesitate because of his age and his shoulder. Not sure why they don't want to take those kinds of risks with the guy with the highest OPS of all AL outfielders but they were more than willing to tamper with the guy with the second-highest OPS of all AL outfielders at the same age and similarly with shoulder problems, but oh well. I'll have something to say about left field later this week.

Reports say John Lackey is coming to Boston. I've gone both ways on the way I feel about Lackey over the years, but as they have been saying on the radio, he's a 1-A starter younger than Halladay, paid A LOT less than what Halladay's going to get, and someone who pretty much needs to be the #3 guy in Boston. Would you rather have John Lackey or AJ Burnout? I think you know my answer. Tonight I'll write about how this effects the Red Sox' punt of the 2010 season, and I'll actually be good for this one.

I'm glad we haven't had too much Adrian Gonzalez/Hanley Ramirez nonsense on our comments boards here at HYD Baseball. But if you want to link this signing to the team trying to trade for either of those guys, I will consider deleting your comment.

3 comments:

Patrick said...

good deal here for boston. i'm not sure what you meant by 1-A, but if you meant 1-A as in the second group behind 1, then i totally agree. that's where lackey is and boston pretty much paid him the going market rate for those kinds of guys the last few off-seasons. he's not sabathia or halladay, but he's at the top of the next group production wise, which is why he's getting paid at the top of the next group money instead of sabathia and halladay money.

lackey is a little different than others in the 1-A group in that he provides more consistency with a little less upside. i think this is preferable. he's less likely to go on a stretch where you can't touch him, but he's also less likely to go on a stretch where he can't get an out. for #2-3 guys, that's a really great quality. the added bonus with lackey is that he does give you that upside in big/playoff games. that sort of makes him play up a little higher than a 15-10, 3.81 career guy, which is what lackey is, just like a guy like burnett's big stuff and ability to takeover (hello, game 2 of the world series), makes him play up a little bit more than what he is. and there's nothing wrong with lackey's line the first place. that's a very good line, and is actually a model of consistency. i'm just saying he's even a little bit better than that line. the only issue you really get with him is the 1053 innings between his age 24 and age 28 seasons (good for 211 per). that's no small number, and is likely amongst the top numbers in the game for that period (03-08). in a vacuum there's nothing wrong with that. in fact being a workhorse is a great thing. but when your age 29 and 30 total 339.2 innings, or 170 per, it's something to watch. not a problem (as anyone who reads here knows i don't think taking risks are problems, rather something you have to do in almost every facet of operating a baseball team) just something to monitor, and if you were going to put any sort of downside on lackey, that would be it. otherwise guy is rock solid. really nice move.

Anonymous said...

DV

Now the convenient thing to do is to dismiss any talk of trading for Adrian Gonzalez or someone of that ilk. It's a popular move. But look at it like this--signing Lackey means the Sox have Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Daisuke, Buchholz, and Wakefield. None of those guys are going to the bullpen and exactly one of them has very, very high trade value: Buchholz. Now I'm not necessarily saying that he gets shipped to San Diego. But the option for him to get shipped somewhere is on the table. I mean, Boston isn't going to send him to the minors. They're not going to sit Daisuke or Wakefield. And they aren't going with a six man rotation. They aren't trading Lackey or Lester, or Wakefield. They can't trade Daisuke because of his contract and the year he's coming off of, so that leaves Beckett and Clay. And Clay probably has more value to a small market team not necessarily because he's younger, but because he's cheaper and will be cheaper in the coming years.

PF

Lackey is a nice piece. I agree with that. But he's not anyone that makes your season. And it makes me wonder just what the hell Boston is doing this winter. I was talking with Timmy earlier and he put it best--it's as if the Sox don't have a plan. If they were going for it this year, then they throw money at Bay/Holliday and sign Lackey. But instead, they're letting Bay walk, signing Mike Cameron, and bringing in Lackey. It just doesn't make sense right now. The only way it DOES make sense, is if the Sox make a move for a legitimate bat via trade, preferably one that allows them to shift Youk to 3rd. Now I'm now saying it's going to happen, but based on the Lackey signing it CAN happen. And if it doesn't, well then I have no idea what Boston is doing.

--the Gunn

Anonymous said...

Gunn,

Agree on the lack of a plan issue. I like Lackey as a player but where are we going?

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