JD Goes to Bath & Body Works, Hilarity Ensues

During the miraculous summer of 2009 when Red Sox right fielder JD Drew posted the second-highest OPS among all AL outfielders, my girlfriend (affectionately referred to as the Franchise on How Youz Doin Baseball) worked at the local Bath and Body Works as one of her summer jobs. Now anybody who knows me knows how I get down, so therefore you know that I’m really not too big into body lotions, bubble baths, or pretty much any product that the Franchise was selling.

However, I was interested in visiting the Franchise from time to time while she was logging her hours at B&BW. So I did.

What was problematic about my visits is the fact that a high priority is placed on a statistic called “conversion.” The corporate heads have mandated that this location should have 70% conversion, i.e. 70% of people who walk through the threshold of the store have to buy something. They don’t have to buy $10 worth of goods; they just have to buy something. And if a location does not reach its conversion goal, the managers get chewed out and the misery is passed all the way down to people like the Franchise.

As I am one who always likes to take one for the team, I sometimes visited the Franchise at work and I agreed to buy something so I wouldn’t screw up the conversion statistic. So every time I went in there, I bought a $1.50 mini-sized bottle of hand sanitizer. Not because it would protect me against swine flu, but because it was the lowest-priced item in the store. So my presence there created next to nothing in terms of revenue for the store or the organization. By wasting the Franchise’s time, my being there was probably flat-out detrimental to the well-being of the store.

But I helped their conversion statistic. I’m not positive if the Franchise’s B&BW had the second-highest conversion of all B&BW locations in Massachusetts, but my unprofitable visit helped their statistic. This statistic is certainly a helpful metric, but placing so much emphasis on it that the firm thinks my visit was helpful is foolish.

The metaphor is pretty obvious. If an organization values JD Drew’s production so highly because he has a high OPS fueled solely by the fact that he goes to the plate looking for walks instead of trying to drive runs in, they are the same as B&BW determining that the 6-7:00 hour was successful because my $1.50 purchase was enough to get them over 70% conversion. Just as the conversion doesn’t tell the whole story because the firm only took in $1.50 revenue, Drew’s OPS doesn’t tell the part about how a walk doesn’t get a run in from second or third base because the guy behind him struck out or about how batters grounded into countless double plays directly after JD Drew walked. I love walks and I understand they’re useful. But for metrics like the one that Epstein valued JD’s worth with, a two-out walk with Varitek on deck is worth as much as a bases-clearing double. Just like some idiot from Lynnfield could be walking out of the store with $2000 worth of merchandise and I help the statistics more because I have several 1.5-ounce bottles of Cucumber Melon, Warm Vanilla Sugar, and Nectarine Mint hand sanitizer sitting in my car.

Sabermetrics speak volumes about the stochastic nature of baseball, and they have changed the game for the better in a big way. But after the Theo Epstein Obama-Style Radio Tour, it has become clear that sabermetrics have gone way off the freaking deep end. People have clearly started to look at one column of the stat sheet (OPS) and that’s a delusional way to evaluate baseball players. That’s why this winter, you will see a series on HYD Baseball called Death of Sabermetrics. Who could imagine that such venom is going to come from hands that are so germ-free and pleasant-smelling?

The Left Field Issue

This is probably not the last time we'll talk about this topic this winter. But the Red Sox have a vacancy in left field, and the two top free agents on the market are both left fielders. Of course, there are many questions to ask: Who will they get, Bay or Holliday? Who should they get? Will the Yankees stick with Damon? Can they afford (read: will they feel like paying) Holliday? Will they give a fifth year to Bay? Honestly, I don't know the answer to a lot of these questions.

The situation is like what I'm sure some Class of '10s are going through right now. Maybe the whole time through college, they have had a girlfriend. She's stable, reliable, and solid. She would be okay to continue a long relationship with. But she's a senior, too, so maybe one too many winters of drinking beer and not going to the athletic center has eroded what she brings to the table. You know what to expect, and you like what you expect. She might strike out a little bit too often, but she's solid.

Then, on the other hand, down the hall, there's a freshman girl. Will probably require more attention, perhaps a lot more attention. She's younger (no winters of beer yet/still does 15 minutes on the elliptical machine and pretends it's a workout) and probably a little better looking. You definitely have a chance with her. But you don't really know what to expect. She could be the best thing that would ever happen. She could be a complete disaster and a mental midget who, you know, does things like drop balls in the outfield or get picked off of first base in the World Series. But she has that potential.

So whom do you want to spend the rest of your senior year with? Is the grass greener on the other side? What do the '10s think? I want to hear Tim C's answer. I do NOT want to hear Franchise's answer.

Anyway, I really have no significant beef with Matt Holliday. The crappy numbers in Oakland don't concern me too too much considering Oakland's status as a pitchers' park. He has not said too many stupid/douchbaggy things, at least not that I've heard, like last year's keystone Scott Boras client. He also has a few more productive years in him than Bay probably does, and he probably has a higher ceiling and higher current production. Scouts say he'd easily drop 40 homers in Boston.

On the other hand, the fact that I'm going to have to be alienated by more Boras antics all winter, the fact that the player has made those two brain-dead mistakes on the largest of stages in the most key moments, and the fact that we might be talking about 6-8 years makes me a little nervous.

I'd prefer Jason Bay. As usual, he put up another 30/100 season and then some last year. He's a solid contributor and a guy who probably deserves to be the team's highest paid player. He's aggressive at the plate, but doesn't swing at stupid pitches. He's the kind of player who is functional as a middle-of-the-order hitter. Strikes out a lot, but you know what you're going to get with Jason Bay. He's a player who can handle Boston and a pretty safe investment if you give him the five years he's looking for.

The most dumbfounding part is the fact that the Red Sox are so hesitant about this. It should be a no-brainer and it should have been something that happened a long time ago. They gave JD Drew, who (if you haven't heard) had the second-highest OPS of all AL outfielders, five years when he was the same age as Bay is now. Most people call that contract sub-par, poor, or disastrous. But Theo's doing his best Obama impersonation, going through many different media outlets to advertise how freaking smart he is and how awesome this controversial signing was. So if he's so adamant about how signing the guy who finished second among all AL outfielders in OPS was such a genius move, why doesn't he give five years to the guy who finished FIRST IN OPS AMONG ALL AL OUTFIELDERS? Maybe it's because Jason Bay had too many RBIs.

Concerned about his defense? Dude, he's got a wall behind him that's like three hundred feet away from home plate!

I really don't understand what all this hesitation is all about. Maybe the team really wants to get into another bidding war over Matt Holliday, and that's why they're balking at Jason Bay. And that's understandable. Holliday might be a player worth taking the risks on (by the way, Pat's post yesterday was unbelievably good). But Jason Bay is the sure thing and the safe bet.

Stay tuned for Thursday night's post. It will be the first post in the Death of Sabermetrics series.

What A Terrible Signing

I want to take what GM was saying in his post about Damon yesterday and expand it a little bit further. This may seem like it is directed at the GM but it isn't. He just happens to share the Efficiency Police opinion that many out there have developed these days.

Of the 25 guys on the roster when the Yankees won the World Series this year, a lot of them have already hit free agency once if not twice, meaning the Yankees either re-signed players they already had or signed them away form other teams. Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Rodriguez, Matsui, Damon, Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett to be exact. For the purposes of this exercise, let's take out Jeter because he was signed nine years ago. Let's also take out Matsui because it was pretty much an after thought that the Yankees would sign him to the type of contract that they did four years ago, coming off the first three seasons he had in the U.S.

Of the other eight, all were signed in the last two off-seasons with the exception of Damon who was four winters ago. With each and every one of them, there were complaints. To a certain extent this is to be expected. There are a lot of media members and fans alike who are all entitled to their own opinion. But it was overwhelming. And I'm not talking about people wanting the player or not. That's different. It is well known I didn't want the Yankees to re-sign Rodriguez and I was totally wrong about that. I'm talking about general negativity surrounding every and any signing.

What a terrible signing. Damon's breaking down. Rivera shouldn't make that much money. Posada is an old catcher. What is year 10 of Rodriguez's contract going to look like? What is year 7 of Sabathia's contract going to look like? Teixeira doesn't hit in the clutch. Pettitte can't make it through a full season. Burnett can't make it through a full season. What a terrible signing.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Count them all, that's eight times over. Why? Because the Yankees won the World Series in 2009, and that's the goal. The goal isn't to be the most efficient. It isn't to worry about if Posada can't legitimately catch in the final year of his deal. Or if Rodriguez may be wildly overpaid in the final year of his deal. The goal is to win the World Series. In order to do that, sometimes you have to make sacrifices in the future. Sometimes to get the talent on your team necessary to win in the present day, you have to deal with giving them years and dollars that may not be the most efficient thing the world has ever seen in the future.

And that's okay. Part of sports is taking risks. No doubt, all of the above are risks. And it is probably a little bit unique that every single one of them worked out so well in 2009. But each of them made contributions to this championship team to the point that it isn't unfair to say maybe the Yankees aren't good enough without even one of them. Rivera continues to be the best closer in baseball. Posada continues to be one of the best catchers in baseball. Rodriguez showed this postseason just how good he is, having one of the best individual playoffs this game has ever seen. Damon is one of the best #2 hitters in the game, and made bigtime plays in both the ALCS and World Series, because he's always been a big game player. Sabathia was maybe the best pitcher I've ever watched in a Yankee uniform, and was at his best in the playoffs, going 4-1 with an ERA in the 1's and beating two of the best offenses in baseball on short rest. Teixeira had an MVP season offensively and defensively, and had three monster hits in the playoffs. Burnett gave the Yankees 207 innings (11th in the AL), and in the biggest game of the Yankees' season - Game 2 of the World Series - gave a performance very few pitchers are talented enough to give. Pettitte gave the Yankees 194.2 innings (20th in the AL) and was 4-0 in the postseason.

The efficiency police will focus on their downside. The GM and others criticized almost every one of these deals based on nothing more than their merits (money and years relative to player's circumstances). When you look at things that way, sure, you may have a pretty efficient and economic team. But you may never win the World Series. I'll take the risks, and get burned sometimes. Because when you don't get burned, you have a chance to experience what the Yankees did in 2009. Again, they aren't winning it if they don't take some of the risks that they did, and I'd venture to say that is true of most (admittedly not all, sometimes you can win and be extremely efficient) championship teams.

Related, I think some fans just like to complain about things, now more than ever. There were people who criticized the Nick Swisher deal. The Yankees gave up Wilson Betemit (DFA'd by the White Sox in May) and Jeff Marquez (4.07 career minor league ERA) to get him. He makes $5.4 million. He hit 29 home runs this year and drove in 82, and if you looked at his stats so far in his career you knew that's pretty much what he was good for. The Yankees gave up nothing to get a guy who almost hit 30 home runs and is on a very reasonable contract. This is almost model efficiency. The point in bringing this up is not just to show that sometimes people will just complain (obviously), but also to show that if they'll complain about this (no risk, very efficient), of course they'll complain about something that is very risky and potentially very inefficient.

You have to take risks to win in sports. The 2009 Yankees took quite a bit of risks. Thankfully, success in Major League Baseball isn't determined by the amount of risk you assume, or what what the return is on that risk. Success is determined ultimately by winning the World Series. The 2009 Yankees won the World Series, and they did so in large part because they weren't concerned with efficiency. Of course, they can afford to do this more than anybody else. Which begs the question, if this is just acknowledged, what is the point of complaining about the Yankees not being efficient? Chew on that one for a little bit.

Disrespect

Well, I was wrong. Here we are, four years later and Johnny Damon's last two years of his 2006-2009 contract with the Yankees did not turn out to be like the second half of a Slurpee, as I predicted in the charter post of How Youz Doin Baseball. It's been a pretty interesting road since the Red Sox were eliminated in four games in 2005, Damon started talking contract immediately after the game, and he decided to have "more sense than that" and join New York.

The Red Sox had seen how much he'd beaten up his body and questioned whether he would be worth the investment. Their offer of 4 years, $40 million was really, in theory, 2 years, $40 million. The Yankees had no fear to take a guy who played so hard for his entire career that it was questionable whether he'd be able to walk by 2008, nevermind put up the numbers he did in 3.5 out of the four years of his Yankee contract.

There was a set of stats already brought up in a Nick Cafardo article over the weekend comparing Damon's stats in four years with New York and in four years with Boston. Granted, we're talking about a more friendly ballpark for Damon, but here are some of the numbers:

Boston: 597 games, .295/56/299, 221 XBH, 98 steals, 262 walks, .362 OBP
New York: 576 gms, ..285/77/296, 217 XBH, 93 steals, 268 walks, .363 OBP

The only stats with a noticeable difference are triples (a lot more in Boston), homers (short porch), and strikeouts (struck out considerably more often in pinstripes). Other than that, he was basically the same player. Still pesky, still worked the count by fouling off a lot of pitches, but still aggressive at the plate so that he could amass a good OPS but still take matters into his own hands instead of passing the buck to the next person in the lineup.

The main gripe I had about Damon during his time in a Yankee uniform was the fact that he had a problem shutting the f up. Every time he had a mic in his face, he was crying and moaning about how much he was disrespected by Boston and how they slapped him in the face by not budging from 4/$40. The fact that most Red Sox fans still embraced him despite his sophomoric behavior is a big part that Coco Crisp became such a hero at this URL. But no matter what way you look at it, it actually does look like the team underestimated him and--yes--disrespected him. If they had known Damon would perform the way he has. In other words, if it were guaranteed he would contribute four more years of the same, he would have gotten that cash and then some from the Red Sox.

But nobody in the world, including even Brian Cashman probably, thought Damon would play as well as he did. I think the whole world was expecting Damon to fall apart, especially after he showed up to camp flat-out fat in 2007, started contemplating retirement, and played horribly for three months in that year before hitting like .600 in September and famously overcoming Coco Crisp's batting average and preventing a 10-page senior thesis about Crisp's superiority on How Youz Doin Baseball. It is a testament to Damon's talent that he could come back from that and then subsequently put together two more stellar seasons. Maybe he was fueled by the disrespect.

The Red Sox' biggest mistake in the whole ordeal was misjudging Coco Crisp's upside, giving him an asinine contract extension right after trading for him. Although Crisp is still #1 in my heart no matter what number he is in your program, that was probably the Red Sox' biggest snafu in their handling of finding a replacement for Damon. If you take me back to 2005 with the information available in 2005 (i.e. without knowing what actually would happen the next four years), I'd still unequivocally say the team should let Damon walk instead of paying him $13 million a year. But now you can't really deny it. He was undervalued. He was underestimated. And while his mouth certainly helped run him out of town...

...Johnny Damon actually was disrespected.

Will Someone Get Traded?

Not an eventful weekend. The best the Globe has is that Johnny Damon's numbers are virtually the same between his four years in Boston and his four years in NY (something that will be addressed here later this week). The best the Herald has is that the Twins have maintained competency instead of aspiring to take it to the next level when letting go of Santana. They will prove their commitment to winning if they can get Mauer to extend himself. The best ESPN has is that the Rookie of the Year award should factor in future projections to prevent the Ben Grieves and Marty Cordovas from winning the award and flaming out.

So this thread is to discuss whatever. You can discuss the Patriots game if you want. But maybe to get some kind of direction, I am wondering whether the Red Sox will trade someone significant to get someone significant in return. None of these guys they want are going to come to Boston for a trade package of Michael Bowden, Ryan Westmoreland, and Dustin Richardson. The Red Sox would have to trade someone of serious substance. It's going to be an interesting offseason with such a weak free agent market. Here are some trade candidates:

-Jonathan Papelbon: The most obvious choice. Despite an abysmal season in 2009 to anyone who was watching the guy play baseball on a regular basis, people who just look at stats probably don't know that he's a one-pitch wonder who's abandoned everything else. They see the lowish ERA and the high save count and might give up something of substance. Plus, the Red Sox have other bullpen options in Ramram and Bard. And he's an upgrade over most closers in the league. I mean, David Aardsma was a closer last year.

-Josh Beckett: One year left in the contract, so he's virtually a poor man's Roy Halladay right now. Except the potential seller is at least a suspect contender, unlike Toronto. Let's face it: Beckett has not put together more than one superb consecutive season in his career, and I don't see the Red Sox overpaying him in the free agent market. I bet the team would rather trade him than trade Buchholz at this point.

-Mike Lowell: The Globe's Nick Cafardo wrote today that there's a market for him. Sox would have to eat some money. But who knows.

-Manny Delcarmen: Do other teams think he has "great stuff and great makeup?" Or is that Kool-Aid actually just consumed in Boston?

-Forty-Six: He's a good player. He's still under contract for a little while. But I bet he's not untradable. There are a lot of center fielders on the trade market, and while nobody would trade Crawford for 46 straight up...or Granderson for 46 straight up, they could be had for 46 and someone else. Even if he's traded for someone other than a center fielder, I feel like the team is still pretty high on Josh Reddick, so finding a replacement might be that easy.

-Matsuzaka: The Red Sox seem pretty committed to Matsuzaka, so I don't see him getting traded. His contract is also reasonably burdensome for a guy who walks the bases loaded all the time. I think he stays.

-Minor league pitchers: The Red Sox won't trade Buchholz. They could trade anyone else though. But that's pretty obvious.

Are the Red Sox F'ed?

In short, yes, they probably are f'ed. Even if they have the perfect offseason, they're still far behind the Yankees barring a slew of New York underachievement and/or injuries. That's kind of an ominous thought, especially for a team with championship aspirations. Really, any way you look at it, the Red Sox can do very little to not become a worse team than they were last year.

What is the main issue is that they have three guys playing basically everyday who are going to be worse than they were last year, most likely. David Ortiz's contract became an albatross right around the time he started denouncing steroid users. Mike Lowell had a good season when he wasn't benched last year, but while he'll be one more year removed from his hip surgery, he's also one year older. And JD Drew is also a year older, plus it's been a little while since he's missed significant time with a minor injury.

Improvements for next year should be in both the rotation and the bullpen. Matsuzaka's return/having his s*** together should improve what the Red Sox have. Watching Lester and Beckett both last year was a constant wait to see the ultimate breakout performance. They're good, and they're so close to reaching the next level, but they have not gotten over the cusp. Also the bullpen could be better next year. It would be scary if Papelbon wasn't better than last year. Bard becoming a year older should help. Ramram is a pitcher in his prime, so there's reason to I guess not be negative about the bullpen.

I have a few offseason ideas that I'll save for another post. I do think the best thing the team can do is re-sign Jason Bay, very much due to the fact that Holliday is a Boras client and the other fact that the guy might lack focus. I didn't even remember this until Felger brought it up yesterday: In addition to the defensive mishap this year on the routine fly ball, Holliday was also the guy who got picked off first base in the World Series.

The rest of my ideas do NOT include the following players:
-Hideki Matsui: Sox already have an untradable DH. He can't play left field, and neither can Ortiz.
-Dan Uggla: What, are they going to move Pedroia to shortstop? Intriguing, but not gonna happen. This is something that might be discussed on WEEI, except they'd talk about trading Drew for Uggla or something.
-Hanley Ramirez: The ship has sailed.
-Adrian Gonzalez: It would be nice for sure, but the Padres will be looking for a significant ransom for their franchise player. I feel like trading Dustin Richardson and Michael Bowden for him is not going to be enough.

The Roster And The Title Defense

The Yankees will be defending a World Series title next year, which is always exciting. In large part their core will be returning. For the first time in a long time, that core has really expanded. It isn't just those that were involved with the 96-00 World Series anymore, though Rivera, Jeter, and Posada are massive parts of the team and will be back next year. This really feels like a team. Sabathia and Teixeira would be cornerstones on any team, and they certainly for the Yankees and will continue to be so. While he has been here for quite some time and has certainly been a part of the Yankees core, this was clearly a different Rodriguez this year. He seems more a part of everything, more a part of the team. Presumably and hopefully, that same Rodriguez will be back next year. Cano, Chamberlain, and Hughes are all young players who have shown varying degrees of promise, and they are back. Burnett, Swisher, and Cabrera are all important pieces and they will be important pieces again next year.

So in addition to defending a title, the Yankees will largely be able to do so with a similar team to the one that one the title, and that is even more exciting. There are, however, three key players whose futures with the Yankees are uncertain.

Andy Pettitte seems to be the most simplistic. If he decides not to retire, he probably only wants to pitch for the Yankees and only on a one year deal, and the Yankees will probably want him and only on a one year deal. The Yankees likely still need another pitcher even if they sign Pettitte to round out their staff (their only real offseason need unless they let one or both of the next two players walk), so they definitely need Pettitte. No real decision to be made here, they just need to find out if Pettitte wants to come back or not. If he does, it's a no brainer.

Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are a bit more complicated. There is no guarantee like there is with Pettitte that they'll take short contracts. And for me that is what it comes down to, years and length. On a two year deal for Damon (think Abreu's 2/$19) and a one year deal for Matsui (maybe 1/$10), brining them back makes a lot of sense. It gives the Yankees a good chance to get production next year (both players were excellent this year), while not locking themselves in at another position for too long. This affords them the opportunity to work players like Austin Jackson into the mix in the outfield (giving Damon more time to rest as well), and also protect against Damon' and/or Matsui's production falling off by not being committed to them for an extended period.

A number of different things could factor into this, and it isn't as simple as I just made it out to be. There are a number of situations where I could see the Yankees bringing both back, bringing only one back, or bringing neither back, and depending on the circumstances I could see any one of these being the right choice. Even if the money and years are right as I said above, maybe a better option presents itself. But that isn't the point.

The point is that it would nice to have them back. Maybe it won't make sense and that's fine. But it would be nice to defend the title with the entire same core that won it for them this year. Pettitte, Damon, and Matsui were a big part of that core. And it should be noted they won't be easy to replace. There aren't a plethora of lefties who can give you 194.2 innings of 14-8 baseball, never mind being a big game pitcher to boot (4-0 this postseason). Johnny Damon had the highest OPS+ of his career this year (126), and hit 24 home runs and had 82 RBI out of the 2 spot in the order, which is not a place just anyone can bat. Hideki Matsui second amongst designated hitters with 28 home runs, and also knocked in 90 runs despite only having 456 at bats. His 131 OPS+ this season is not a number you can just pick someone up and expect them to give you. And we know what both Damon and Matsui did for the Yankees in the playoffs, especially the World Series.

We'll see what ends up happening. Like I said, I could really see any combination of these players coming back and going. And I could see most if not all of these combinations making sense depending on the circumstances. And I'll be happy as long as the prudent decision is made, because what makes the Yankees best next year is more important to me than any type of nostalgia. But a big part of me is hoping that what makes sense is to bring all three of these players back. That way the entire Yankees' core, as big as it is, can defend the 2009 World Series title.